Warmer, drier winter predicted for western Washington amid early signs of El Niño pattern

WASHINGTON — The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Climate Prediction Center just gave some clues about what to expect with the upcoming winter season when it comes to temperature and precipitation.

The newest forecast models for temperatures into early November are trending normal or slightly leaning below normal.

For the same time period, the amount of rain we expect to get in western Washington is leaning toward slightly above typical rain totals.

Looking further down the road for all of November, December, and January, government forecasters said the northwest has a 50-60% chance of feeling temperatures above normal.

At the same time, temperatures are expected to trend warmer, this map from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there is an equal chance rain amounts being above or below normal to the west of the Cascades through the end of January.

A winter that trends warmer and drier in the northwest fits the pattern for a classic El Niño.

El Niño and La Niña are weather patterns fueled by the temperature of the water in part of the Pacific Ocean. According to the NOAA, there is a 75-85% chance it will become a strong event.

The influence of an El Niño on weather in the U.S. is typically greatest in January, February and March. During an El Niño winter, forecasters would expect fewer powerful storms moving into the northwest and more headed for California. An El Niño can impact air temperature and precipitation patterns all over the world.

Snowfall around western Washington could also be less if the El Niño pattern holds true this winter. That would be true for ski areas and the lowlands.

It’s important to remember that El Niños and three month outlooks are about greater or lesser chances or types of weather. They do not mean we cannot be hit with arctic air or a lowland snowstorm at some point this winter. They just tell us there will likely be fewer of those kind of weather events.